All those that are key to a business, including its owner/s, executive team, senior management and advisors, should be able to recognise business distress if it occurs, both within their business and in their customers and suppliers. Spotting the signs early can enable a relatively minor course correction to avoid disaster and put the business on a path to success.
Below, we explore the signs of business distress to look out for and how to assess whether your company is at risk of trading while insolvent.
Trading losses
Trading losses are not always an indicator of insolvency, however if not addressed, will erode a business’s liquidity and potentially pose a threat to a company’s solvency.
Where trading losses are apparent, you need to identify who is funding the losses.
Is a company director or related party funding the losses? If so, is this sustainable and is the funding being made in a conscientious manner or in an ad hoc way that offers little protection for the funding party?
Is the business not paying certain creditors such as the Australian Taxation Office (ATO)? This is not a long-term strategy and if creditor management is required in the short term, it’s important to assess a creditor’s will and skill to affect the business. For example, the ATO could issue a Director Penalty Notice, a secured creditor could repossess assets, trade creditors could stop supply, etc.
Is third party finance being used or needed? A strategic plan for funding and knowing how much runway it provides is critical.
Poor cash flow
A profitable business on paper may still be burning cash. If it is, you need to determine whether you’re facing a temporary lack of liquidity or an endemic shortage of working capital.
When considering cash flows, questions should include:
- Are poor debtor collections are a result of lack of focus / effort in the collection process; customer credit issues or a low-quality product or service?
- How quickly is inventory turned over and whether any redundant stock exists and can be liquidated?
- What is the tipping point for enforcement action by a creditor not being paid on time and what actions are available to creditors?
- Is there any capex that can be deferred or non-core assets that can be sold?
- Do the current financing facilities align with current funding needs or were facilities structured at a time when the company was in a more stable position?
Pinning hopes on the next ‘big contract’
Hope is not a strategy and chasing revenue just to ‘feed the beast’ could impact margins and profitability and exacerbate financial distress. So, at times of risk, the questions that should be asked are:
- Is there a logical business case for new work?
- Is data available to assess the contribution margin of any new work?
- Can the overhead structure be adjusted in the short term to accommodate lower gross margins?
- Is the business avoiding ‘strategic’ contracts that offer longer term benefits at the expense of the short term?
- Is there sufficient margin of error or flexibility in contracts to accommodate supply chain price increases?
- Do you have the capacity to deliver on your ongoing obligations? Nothing erodes liquidity quicker than having contractual payments withheld and getting bogged down in disputes.
An inability to produce timely and accurate financial information
Bad data leads to bad decisions. If a business is unable to produce timely data on its financial position, rarely is the prognosis going to be better than expected.
Most companies experiencing financial distress won’t be able to completely revamp their financial reporting systems. This means that in the short-term, cash flow reporting should be the focus rather than profit and loss. Directors should take control of this reporting and not delegate the responsibility.
This will allow them to closely guard cash outflows and pull the right levers to increase cash inflow. Measuring actual performance to forecasts will create accountability within the business.
Operational Inefficiencies
“We have always done it that way”
Persistent operational issues such as production delays, problems with quality control, or supply chain disruptions, can be a sign of business distress.
Inefficiencies can erode profitability and contribute to financial instability. They can also directly impact a business’s ability to deliver products or services and generate revenue.
Operational inefficiencies in a business may be caused by several variables, however, delaying payments and cuts to key stakeholders will have a negative impact on operations and staff morale. Therefore, it’s important that any discussions with advisors on how and where to reduce costs should include detailed analyses on the likely effects on operational inefficiencies.
Frequent leadership changes
Frequent changes in senior management or a lack of clear strategic direction can signal instability within the organisation and business distress. Leadership issues such as director disputes and senior personal departures can negatively affect the business environment. The greater the level of decline within a business, the higher the likelihood of key talent leaving.
Poor relationship with financiers
A company’s solvency is not limited to the cash resources immediately available to pay debts. Understanding what money can raised by way of debt or equity injections is a key consideration in assessing solvency.
In terms of funding and finance, red flags that could trigger a conversation about the risk of insolvency include:
- An inability to seek further funding from current financier
- Rejection of request to rollover a facility
- Unable to refinance with alternative financier
- Funding obtained with costs well above market rates, and
- Due diligence by investor raises concern about business model or balance sheet.
Inability to pay taxes when due
As cash flow dries up, decisions may need to be made on which creditors are paid. A supplier’s behaviour can have a greater bearing on the company’s ability to trade in the short term and therefore the squeakiest wheel often gets the oil first.
Inevitably this means that when statutory payments become due, they are moved down the priority list. The first instance of deferring statutory debts is something liquidators look for when assessing solvency and this should give Directors pause to think about the long-term viability of their business. It should also be a timely reminder for directors to consider their personal position and the impact that business failure may have on them (i.e. a Director Penalty Notice).
Although statutory creditors may have limited leverage in affecting operations in the short term, rarely does the ATO accept a haircut on their debt. Consequences of non-payment can include public disclosures of arrears by the ATO making it more difficult to obtain credit, garnishee notices, Director Penalty Notices and disqualification from safe harbour protection.
Creditor disputes
Legal action will be the last step in creditor disputes and often, due to commercial considerations, disputes will not escalate beyond informal demands and negotiations. Liquidators understand this and will not just look for formal legal disputes to assess the point in time that a company may have been insolvent.
Suspicions of insolvency should be raised upon the occurrence of:
- Significant aged creditor ledger
- Creditors stopping supply or implementing cash upon delivery terms
- Material changes of terms and rates to recoup losses, and
- Special payment arrangements with creditors.
If disputes are escalated to formal legal action, this becomes publicly available information which can be collated by credit reporting bureaus. This could exacerbate distress as obtaining credit and dealing with stakeholders becomes more difficult as the market becomes informed on the potential solvency risk.
Recognising the symptoms of business distress can help business owners and stakeholders take proactive measures to address financial challenges. Early intervention is key to mitigating the risk of insolvency and ensuring the long-term success of the business.
Source: WilliamBuck
