[adning id=”12070″]

[adning id=”12070″]

Rebound in Sep. retail sales; “lockdown-affected areas are turning a corner”, says NAB

NAB’s data mapping points to a rebound in retail sales in September. We see the official ABS measure gaining 2.2% on a month-on-month basis. Retail sales fell 1.7% in August – we forecast a 2.7% drop at the time, since revised to -1.7%.

September results were clearly affected by lockdowns in much of New South Wales, Victoria and the ACT, suppressing retail and more acutely hospitality spending. But our data suggest that consumers have begun to turn a corner, reflected in this print, as well as our weekly consumer spending updates, which have seen an uptick over recent weeks.

Lockdown ended in Sydney on Monday, to be followed by the ACT on Friday and Melbourne in around two weeks. It remains unclear whether consumers will “snap back” to the same extent as previous reopenings with the virus circulating in the community this time. However, higher than expected vaccination rates (the ACT and NSW are now over 90% first dose, with Victoria on track to reach this milestone in around a week) should give the reopening real durability.

NAB Chief Economist, Alan Oster commented

Retail conditions in lockdown-affected areas have clearly been challenging for many businesses, with hospitality hit particularly hard. However, our data now indicate that lockdown-affected areas are turning a corner. Reopening in NSW, soon to be followed by the ACT and Victoria, should give retail spending a good kick along in October and November.

While this report, alongside our weekly tracking data, provides some encouraging news, the NAB Monthly Business Survey provided a more nuanced picture for businesses in September. While confidence in NSW and Victoria rebounded ahead of reopening, actual business conditions fell significantly during the period. We expect that reopening will bring an uptick, but how quickly conditions recover will depend on consumer sentiment in the face of ongoing cases.

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin
Share on email
Share on print

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


Get breaking news delivered


Austrade Approved Business Events
AVAILABLE NOW APPLY BEFORE 30th MARCH 2021 (Condition apply)

  • ABF Events are approved and listed below have been certified by Austrade on the Schedule of Approved Business Events.
  • This allows exhibitors, sponsors, delegates and partners to participate in the Business Events Grant Program. Note event bookings need to be confirmed ASAP to participate in the grant program
  • The program provides 50% rebate (based on a minimum spend of $20k) for approved items including ABF event-media packages, exhibition stands, corporate function tables, delegate registrations.
  • Govt Grant applications are now open until the 30 March. Please contact ABF to discuss how we can assist, we have experts to assist grant applications.
  • Grant funding will cover up to 50% of eligible expenditure incurred in participating at pre-approved business-to-business events as buyers or sellers during the 2021 calendar year.  All grant applications must be submitted for approval via the following link: https://business.gov.au/grants-and-programs/business-events-grants
  • For further information please see this fact sheet.