Donald Trump’s trade policy is no longer just a strategy—it is now a self-inflicted crisis, warns the CEO of global financial advisory giant deVere Group.
Nigel Green has spoken out following Trump’s latest tariff threats. On Thursday, the former US President vowed to impose a 200% tariff on all wines and other alcoholic products from EU countries unless the bloc removed its existing tariff on whiskey. This move follows a threat made on Wednesday to retaliate against Europe’s response to Washington’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports.
Trade imbalances have long been a central issue for Trump, who, early into his second term, aggressively imposed levies on key trade partners, including Mexico, China, and Canada.
“His tariff-driven economic gamble is pushing the US into a hole so deep that even America may not be able to climb out,” warns Nigel Green.
“The damage has already been done. Market waves of uncertainty have taken their toll, investor confidence has been battered, and businesses are scrambling to mitigate costs they never asked for.”
He continues: “While Trump claims he is negotiating, the reality is far messier. Mixed signals, erratic policy shifts, and contradictory statements are leaving global markets on edge.
“He insists tariffs will force better deals, but investors see only escalating costs, rattled supply chains, and a world moving on without the US. Every delay, every policy reversal, every sudden tariff hike sends another shock through an already fragile system.
“This is beyond frustrating for investors. Markets do not just react to actions; they react to credibility. And right now, credibility is in short supply.”
Economic Uncertainty Spilling into Australia
The stock market, once a key pillar of Trump’s economic messaging, is now caught in an environment where every tweet, every off-the-cuff remark, and every policy shift has the potential to move billions. But this time, the movement is not in the right direction.
Even if Trump were to reverse course tomorrow, the long-term effects of his tariff war are already entrenched. American businesses have absorbed higher input costs, consumers are facing rising prices, and supply chains have already shifted.
For Australia, these disruptions could bring both risks and opportunities. The US remains one of Australia’s most important trading partners, and any economic instability in Washington has knock-on effects for Australian businesses, particularly those reliant on American investment and exports to the US.
The ongoing trade war has already seen companies diverting production away from the US, with many shifting to low-cost alternatives such as Vietnam, India, and Mexico. If Trump’s policies continue to alienate major trading partners, Australia could see new trade opportunities emerge, particularly as countries look to diversify supply chains away from the US and China.
However, the volatility created by Trump’s approach remains a serious concern. Market uncertainty is weighing on investor confidence, impacting Australian businesses that rely on stable global trade relationships. Sectors such as mining, agriculture, and wine exports could face fresh challenges if US-EU tensions escalate further. Australia’s reliance on open markets means that prolonged global instability could hinder economic growth and business expansion.
The Global Shift Away from the US
“The unpredictability itself has left a lasting imprint on global trade,” said the deVere chief executive and founder.
“While the US plays political games with tariffs, other nations are striking deals, forging alliances, and creating new economic frameworks that do not depend on Washington.
“Europe and Asia are strengthening ties. The UK is redefining its post-Brexit trade strategy. China is cementing its position as a dominant economic force despite US efforts to curb its influence.”
For Australia, the challenge will be balancing its historically close relationship with the US while capitalising on emerging trade shifts. As Trump’s erratic policies continue to shake global markets, Australia must remain agile, diversifying trade partnerships and ensuring economic resilience in an increasingly unpredictable world.
He concludes: “Global trade flows are adapting to a world where the US is no longer the dominant player it once was. This shift is happening in real time, is measurable, and will be increasingly difficult to reverse.”
